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Cara posted an update 7 years, 11 months ago
Well, this is a surprise… wonder if they will actually enact this.
https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-eu-response/eu-to-start-iran-sanctions-blocking-law-process-on-friday-idUSL5N1SO4W2
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Well in decades of history the EEC/EU might be able make a couple of right moves… though actually of course “EU” means Germany, cashing in a continent-wide dissatisfaction against the “Anglosphere”.
My guess is that it is just a symbolic move to satisfy Khamenei’s ultimatum, in which he asked for concrete guarantees from the Europeans, or else Iran would leave the JCPOA. It can be undone easily (see below) … just to allow the mullahs a face-saving way to stay in the JCPOA.
“The European Commission said on Friday the measure would come into force within two months, unless the European Parliament and EU governments formally rejected it.”
However, if it is for real, then it would not be for Iran’s sake. It would mark a tectonic shift in geopolitics with Europe becoming a global hub of political , as well as economic, power, with Germany at the forefront. And if Europe is serious, then one must really be grateful for president Trump shooting his own country in the foot (he did it on his own volition) for Europe’s own sake. Whether the JCPOA will be beneficial to Iran (as a nation — not the regime) remains to be seen. Because as a nation (regardless of who is in charge) Iran lives in a very dangerous region, and military deterrence is an existential necessity, even more so than it is for Israel (and I can explain why). Whether at this time a nuke would help or hurt a nation like Iran — again forget who is in charge now because that is going to change sooner or later — is debatable. Probably not. But if nuke tech is a gateway to much more advanced technologies (as suggested by Dr. Farrell) then any nation with ambitions must develop nuke technology for civilian purposes. Iran’s huge & cheap missile arsenal at this time replaces a non-existent air force — so I doubt anyone would accept curbs (except to limit their range so it does not reach Europe, for example, which would be a fair deal if Europe provides Iran economic incentives). If US-Israel threats of taking war to Iran are just a bluff (and I think they are) then it makes more sense for Iran to comply with JCPOA, IF EUROPE is on-board. I hope so, but precedents are not encouraging.
My guess is that the mullahs will make the following concessions if Europe is serious:
(1) Iran not to build very long range missiles, say for the next 10 years (i.e. not reach Europe)
– if in 10 years, mullahs still rule Iran, the curb can be extended
– if a more reasonable government is in charge in Iran, then curbs will not be needed
(2) Iran to withdraw any remaining troops from Syria
– it is to Iran’s advantage to exit Syria militarily but continue exerting influence in other ways
(3) Iran to start respecting human rights at hime
– this would be the best measure for the sake of Iranian people that Europe can take
– Europe should put max pressure on Iran’s rulers to climb down gradually on its medieval practices
– Mullahs might grudgingly agree if they are wise