Joseph l would like to comment on your News and Views of 19 Sep. I agree that the lranian regime would be crazy to have carried out the cruise missile and drone attacks on Abqaiq and
Khurais oil facilities; and with your ‘who has the capability and who benefits?’ analysis. However, l believe that you overlooked one state actor that has the military and covert action capabilities,,as well the motive. Israel has a foreign policy that specifically seeks through overt and covert action to divide and rule the Arab world and courts US financial and military technical support, manipulating Washington opinion and encourages other regional powers (in this case the US, France, Germany, other Gulf Staes and Saudi Arabia) to confront lran. J Facts, according to Saudi government the cruise missiles and drones approached the targets from the north and west, not South if they were launched from Yemen or East/ northeast if they came from l ran or Iraq. The Israeli Navy German built Dolphin ll class diesl electric submarines have a conventional or nuclear cruise missile launch capability, the missiles possibly based on the Israeli Popeye attack missile, that with extra fuel could achieve a 1500 km range, link: https//warisboring.com/israels-tiny-navy-packs-a-huge-punch/. The Mossad and also the navy’s Flotilla 13 have a proven ability to conduct covert action with region including the Gulf States ( e.g. assassination of Hamas arms buyer in Dubai) and they have spy satellites. Israel has access to captured Iranian weaponry from various sources and its Hermes family of drones appear to have been sold or acquired by the Iranians and used as the basis for an ‘indigenously’ developed family of drones, some of which have been used by the Houthi rebels against Saudi and UAE forces in Yemen. The 7 cruise missiles could have been launched from one or more Dolphin class subs submerged in the Red Sea and supported by Mossad or Saudi special forces firing Iranian drones from within the Kingdom. . Israel pursues a divide and rule foregn policy link: https://m.jpost.com/Opinion/Israels-divide-and-rule-Iran-and-Iraq-582243. PM Bibi Netanyahu is in political trouble and has used the lDF to carry out missions in the past to shore up his domestic support. His Likud party didn’t win an outright majority and so far his efforts to form a coalition have been unsuccessful. If he doesn’t regain his Prime Ministerial position he will be indicted on corruption charges. An lranian attack on KSA and US moving towards regional war in the Gulf would give Bibi a plausible case for retaining his position as PM as the only “experienced war time” Prime Minister in the group, getting him off the corruption charges hook, yet again. Reportedly, lsrael and Saudi Arabia have had an ‘under the table’ diplomatic relationship for some years, so it is not a stretch to believe that lsrael may have colluded with Crown Prince Salman or the Deep State elements in KSA to plan and carry out the False flag attacks and offer the US false intelligence pointing to lran, in an attempt to convince the Trump Administration to carry out miltary strikes against lran, an action that could lead to an all out regional war, that would be welcomed by the Deep State elements, neutralise of destroy Iranian ability to attack lsrael and KSA significantly reduce Trumps chances of ‘re election in 2020. As you pointed out, Trump very carefully parsed his words in describing the attacks and said that the US was locked and loaded “ready to attack whover was responsible for carrying out the attacks”. He did not name lran, which suggests that Trump and his closest advisors don’t believe that l ran was responsible. America has the most technically advanced spy satellites and AWACS aircraft operating in the Gulf, so presumably they know where the attacks originated from. Notably, Trump removed John Bolton his National Security Advisor 3 days before the attack. The timing may be coincidental but it makes you go hmmm. Interestingly Japan and France initially questioned the ‘lran did it’ claims due lack of evidence. The attacks damaged but did not destroy Saudi oil production capabilities, they lost 50% processing capabilities but met contracted deliveries using stored reserves of processed oil. Saudi Aramco was running at 2/3 capacity 9 mbpd v 12 mbpd) and according to most reports the damage will be repaired and full production capacity restored by the end of the year. So not a mortal blow. All oil producers benefit from the short term spike in oil prices, but once Saudi is back on full stream as the global oil swing producer, prices will surely return to pre attack levels. Finally, lsrael manufactures and sells the lron Dome air defence system, a low cost, but capable, trailer mounted system designed to defend lsraeli settlements from Hamas and Hezbollah artillery, mortar and rocket attacks. Iron Dome is designed to detect small projectiles and missiles and destroy them with low cost missiles, a later version is proposed adding high powered Lasers. Presumably lron Dome could be used or adapted to defend against against drones and sub or transonic cruise missiles. According to the BBC and Business insider the Saudis are interested, link:https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-wants-israel-iron-dome-anti-missile-system-2018-1?IR=T So, if my theory is correct, it’s win win for lsrael and Saudi Arabia if the world believes that lran carried out the attack. Trump increases sanctions and has to refocus and deploy forces back to the Gulf (albeit air defence battery and defence troops) and he tightens lran sanctions. Britain, France and Germany follow suit. Iran is being strangled and could undertake offensive action leading to retaliatory US strikes (which lsrael may covertly support). If not, lsrael has cemented its covert relationship with the Kingdom vis a vis lran and perhaps and profitably sells lron Dome to the Saudis to defend their oilfields and key oil facilities. The Saudi regime wins sympathy as the victim of a surpise attack, deflecting from criticism over its human rights issues in the Yemen war, and benefits from a short term lift in oil prices. In addition, if it buys iron Dome to defend itself from the ‘evil Persians’ MBS has a plausible excuse for opening up some form of dip,lomatic relations with lsrael, as the UAE has done. Plausible and food for thought.
Joseph l would like to comment on your News and Views of 19 Sep. I agree that the lranian regime would be crazy to have carried out the cruise missile and drone attacks on Abqaiq and
Khurais oil facilities; and with your ‘who has the capability and who benefits?’ analysis. However, l believe that you overlooked one state actor that has the military and covert action capabilities,,as well the motive. Israel has a foreign policy that specifically seeks through overt and covert action to divide and rule the Arab world and courts US financial and military technical support, manipulating Washington opinion and encourages other regional powers (in this case the US, France, Germany, other Gulf Staes and Saudi Arabia) to confront lran. J Facts, according to Saudi government the cruise missiles and drones approached the targets from the north and west, not South if they were launched from Yemen or East/ northeast if they came from l ran or Iraq. The Israeli Navy German built Dolphin ll class diesl electric submarines have a conventional or nuclear cruise missile launch capability, the missiles possibly based on the Israeli Popeye attack missile, that with extra fuel could achieve a 1500 km range, link: https//warisboring.com/israels-tiny-navy-packs-a-huge-punch/. The Mossad and also the navy’s Flotilla 13 have a proven ability to conduct covert action with region including the Gulf States ( e.g. assassination of Hamas arms buyer in Dubai) and they have spy satellites. Israel has access to captured Iranian weaponry from various sources and its Hermes family of drones appear to have been sold or acquired by the Iranians and used as the basis for an ‘indigenously’ developed family of drones, some of which have been used by the Houthi rebels against Saudi and UAE forces in Yemen. The 7 cruise missiles could have been launched from one or more Dolphin class subs submerged in the Red Sea and supported by Mossad or Saudi special forces firing Iranian drones from within the Kingdom. . Israel pursues a divide and rule foregn policy link: https://m.jpost.com/Opinion/Israels-divide-and-rule-Iran-and-Iraq-582243. PM Bibi Netanyahu is in political trouble and has used the lDF to carry out missions in the past to shore up his domestic support. His Likud party didn’t win an outright majority and so far his efforts to form a coalition have been unsuccessful. If he doesn’t regain his Prime Ministerial position he will be indicted on corruption charges. An lranian attack on KSA and US moving towards regional war in the Gulf would give Bibi a plausible case for retaining his position as PM as the only “experienced war time” Prime Minister in the group, getting him off the corruption charges hook, yet again. Reportedly, lsrael and Saudi Arabia have had an ‘under the table’ diplomatic relationship for some years, so it is not a stretch to believe that lsrael may have colluded with Crown Prince Salman or the Deep State elements in KSA to plan and carry out the False flag attacks and offer the US false intelligence pointing to lran, in an attempt to convince the Trump Administration to carry out miltary strikes against lran, an action that could lead to an all out regional war, that would be welcomed by the Deep State elements, neutralise of destroy Iranian ability to attack lsrael and KSA significantly reduce Trumps chances of ‘re election in 2020. As you pointed out, Trump very carefully parsed his words in describing the attacks and said that the US was locked and loaded “ready to attack whover was responsible for carrying out the attacks”. He did not name lran, which suggests that Trump and his closest advisors don’t believe that l ran was responsible. America has the most technically advanced spy satellites and AWACS aircraft operating in the Gulf, so presumably they know where the attacks originated from. Notably, Trump removed John Bolton his National Security Advisor 3 days before the attack. The timing may be coincidental but it makes you go hmmm. Interestingly Japan and France initially questioned the ‘lran did it’ claims due lack of evidence. The attacks damaged but did not destroy Saudi oil production capabilities, they lost 50% processing capabilities but met contracted deliveries using stored reserves of processed oil. Saudi Aramco was running at 2/3 capacity 9 mbpd v 12 mbpd) and according to most reports the damage will be repaired and full production capacity restored by the end of the year. So not a mortal blow. All oil producers benefit from the short term spike in oil prices, but once Saudi is back on full stream as the global oil swing producer, prices will surely return to pre attack levels. Finally, lsrael manufactures and sells the lron Dome air defence system, a low cost, but capable, trailer mounted system designed to defend lsraeli settlements from Hamas and Hezbollah artillery, mortar and rocket attacks. Iron Dome is designed to detect small projectiles and missiles and destroy them with low cost missiles, a later version is proposed adding high powered Lasers. Presumably lron Dome could be used or adapted to defend against against drones and sub or transonic cruise missiles. According to the BBC and Business insider the Saudis are interested, link:https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-wants-israel-iron-dome-anti-missile-system-2018-1?IR=T So, if my theory is correct, it’s win win for lsrael and Saudi Arabia if the world believes that lran carried out the attack. Trump increases sanctions and has to refocus and deploy forces back to the Gulf (albeit air defence battery and defence troops) and he tightens lran sanctions. Britain, France and Germany follow suit. Iran is being strangled and could undertake offensive action leading to retaliatory US strikes (which lsrael may covertly support). If not, lsrael has cemented its covert relationship with the Kingdom vis a vis lran and perhaps and profitably sells lron Dome to the Saudis to defend their oilfields and key oil facilities. The Saudi regime wins sympathy as the victim of a surpise attack, deflecting from criticism over its human rights issues in the Yemen war, and benefits from a short term lift in oil prices. In addition, if it buys iron Dome to defend itself from the ‘evil Persians’ MBS has a plausible excuse for opening up some form of dip,lomatic relations with lsrael, as the UAE has done. Plausible and food for thought.