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Ken posted an update 5 years, 8 months ago
I’d like to share a little numbers project I went through this afternoon. To show the weight of our reality, outside of those other annoying distractions. Tomorrow the Q2 GDP numbers will be released. The consensus is -35%. Add that to the -5% print in Q1, the economy contracted -40% so far this year. For some perspective, from 2000 to 2020, the total GDP was 37.8%. So now the economic growth for the past 20 years is going to be -2.2%. Maybe a 20 year recovery from all this? Who knows at this point. Also over these past 20 years, using government softball numbers, close to 50% inflation. Meanwhile the deficit rose 472.2% over that period. But don’t worry folks, we’re almost at all time highs in the markets, with recently 50 million laid off. Another fun fact, since 1913, again using their numbers, the dollar is worth four pennies. At market close, with the suppressed gold price of $1960 per oz, this would make the 1913 dollar worth One Penny. Nothing to see here, move along. It’s only a minor depression, take two aspirins and call me in the morning.
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As our great President Dubya once said:”Humpty Dumpty something something never get put back together again.”
If I know the financial world well enough, which I don’t, much of the second quarter deals with preparing the raw materials and basic parts for the shopping bonanza in the fourth quarter. This hasn’t happened and we have ran the cupboards dry as some might say. The critical time is late August/early September to know how bad is bad and the bad unfolds in the 4th quarter. This is how the 2008 financial crisis developed in broadstrokes. People in high places are already nervous now and the feeling will slowly trickle down as the realization hits the hierarchy of the business world. It is going to become crystal clear to middle management in about a month’s time that the Christmas season is going to be one of the greater financial distasters ever seen and there really isn’t anything anyone can do. They are going to flip out. The era of the Chinese subsidized Christmas has come to an end.
Yeah, they knew this was coming. 1,640 CEOs left their post in 2019, after all the share buybacks and them cashing out. They have nothing to worry about. We do on the other hand. Well, maybe not…. I guess we’ll find out.
lol… well said.
Why, thank you…. apparently I was wrong -0.1% in 20yrs(print being -32.9% in Q2). That’s okay they’ll revise the numbers down next quarter.